Forecasting Event – FAQ

Diviner September 24 Clinical Trials Forecasting Event

Overview and Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

The September 24th event will demonstrate what can happen when a number of bright minds come together, in a specific way, to make predictions about drug development outcomes.    We are bringing together people from across the biopharma ecosystem to jointly forecast the following:

  • The clinical trial outcomes of seven drugs currently in mid-stage trials
  • The FDA response of a drug up for approval in two indications, and
  • Which of the most advanced COVID vaccine candidates will be approved first, and when

What method will you use to forecast these outcomes?

We will use a combination of a pre-event survey and, on September 24, Unanimous AI’s Swarm — a live online collective intelligence platform with a strong track record of predictions — to drive the participants to joint forecasts.

The event is a demonstration, rather than a full use of the Diviner Method, which contains five steps, ranging from selecting the right people for the problem at hand, preparing them with the appropriate industry data sets, teaming them to collaborate, and asking them to assess an opportunity or forecast an outcome.   The screening, training, briefing and discussion will be quite limited for this event, but the results should be engaging to participate in and to observe.

How will my name and personal information be used?

That is completely up to you.  When you sign up, you will be asked to specify whether you would like us to share your name.   We will not share your information without your permission.

Will the event be live?    When is it?

Yes, it will be live, one-hour event — held virtually, of course.   It is Thursday, September 24th – – 12:30 pm Eastern, 9:30 am Pacific, 17:30 UK, 18.30 Central Europe

What is Swarm?   Is this how Diviner does all its forecasts?

Swarm is an amazing tool for bringing together groups of 15 to 100 people and driving them toward a collective choice, decision, set of insights or predictions.   It is one of the ways we capture a team’s collective forecast, during the Assess stage of the Diviner Method.

How many participants will you have?

We are targeting 20-30 participants.

Will I be compensated?

No, not for this demonstration event.   We do compensate for work we do for clients and for our R&D into what combinations of techniques are most predictive.   So please let us know if you are interested in paid engagements.

Why should I participate?

If any of the following speaks to you, please consider participating:

  • You are curious about how well collective intelligence works in assessing drug development conditions
  • You want to know how good you are at forecasting drug development outcomes, and how you compare to your peers
  • You want to explore this because you might want to earn some extra money participating in paid Diviner engagements
  • You would like to see the industry, and ultimately, human health — benefit from metrics to improve R&D