We make strong claims about our ability to predict clinical trials.
And coming from biopharma, we knew to expect skepticism. Strong claims require strong evidence.
So we designed a proof of concept (POC) to see if we could predict clinical trials well enough to create real value.
We recruited pharma drug development veteran Diviners — about 20 collaborate to assess each clinical trial. They identify and score key risk factors, and then forecast the probability of success (POS).
What was our POC’s endpoint? There is no widely accepted benchmark for accuracy of a Phase 2 or Phase 3 trial-level POS. So we picked a very high bar: a POS accurate enough to beat the biotech public equities market.
It worked — it really worked.
50+ forecasts in 18 months. 40+ readouts so far. High-uncertainty Phase 2 and Phase 3 small biotech trials that moved their stocks an average of 40%.
We have 70% accuracy.
If you had invested using only our high-conviction probability of success forecasts…
…you would have been up 17%…
while biotech indices were down sharply.
Care to see the details? Let us know.