To improve estimates of probability of success for drugs in clinical trials, so that:
Biotech investors struggle to prioritize investments, with sky-high risks: Over 90% of new drugs fail in clinical trials. Too much money is wasted, and too much capital sits on the sidelines.
Why does this happen?
Because drug development is risky, and nobody knows which new drug candidates will work.
The science of collective intelligence forecasting has advanced rapidly in the last two decades. Diviner is the first to apply it to drug development. We’ve drawn on the most promising, proven techniques to create a novel, proprietary method which applies the collective wisdom of a large network of biopharma veterans to assign measurable, testable probability of success (POS) scores to drug candidates.
We have recruited our own network of Diviners to join us in our work: seasoned biopharma industry professionals — people who have spent their careers in drug development.
Our first use of our proprietary method is forecasting Phase 2 and Phase 3 clinical trial outcomes, measuring our track record, and monetizing the capability.
We forecast the results of a new Phase 2 or Phase 3 clinical trial every week. New molecular entities, mostly novel mechanisms, mostly small-cap biotech trials. More than 20 of these trials have now announced results, and the stocks have moved an average of 40% on the results. In other words, these are trials with high uncertainty.
Who while nobody knows which ones will work, we’ve been right a lot more than we’ve been wrong.
Below are three examples of the forecasts we made in our 30-trial proof of concept. In each forecast, approximately 20 of our Diviners, averaging 22 years of industry experience, came together to help us assign a POS to the trial outcome.
Please contact us to hear the details of our track record, to discuss our work, and/or to explore whether your knowledge of drug development and/or biotech equities might make you a strong member of our Diviner forecaster network.
Want to speak with our Core Team about how to join a promising, disruptive, innovative biotech start-up as an expert forecaster, or are intrigued by how all of this works and want to know more, please contact us.